3-phase Bihar polls likely from Nov 5-15; MCC from Oct 2

New Delhi, SEPT 23 : The Election Commission is likely to hold the assembly elections in Bihar in three phases between November 5 and 15. The Model Code of Conduct, which requires the ruling party to refrain from using government machinery to influence voters, is expected to come into force from October 2.

The term of the current assembly ends on November 22, and a new assembly must be elected before this date. Sources said the Election Commission is likely to announce the election schedule within a week.

The high-stakes contest for control of the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly will be three-cornered, with poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor entering the fray by launching a new party, Jan Suraaj.

Kishor will challenge two established blocs: the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—comprising Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the BJP, and smaller parties led by Chirag Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha, and Jitan Ram Manjhi—and the opposition Mahagathbandhan, which includes Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, and Left parties.

The performance of Jan Suraaj could significantly affect the outcome, as it is expected to cut into the support bases of both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. While the growing popularity of Kishor’s party suggests it may secure a sizeable vote share, the number of seats it can win remains uncertain.

Both the ruling alliance and the opposition are closely watching Kishor’s campaign, with each side claiming that his party will hurt the other more.

Analysts suggest that the entry of Jan Suraaj may reshape voter alignments, particularly in constituencies where margins of victory are traditionally narrow.

While education, employment, and migration remain key issues in the election, opposition parties have launched a campaign against the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and its voter identification criteria. However, the Supreme Court’s directive to the Commission to ensure that no eligible voter is disenfranchised due to lack of access to documents has largely brought the matter to a close.

The ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan are expected to announce their seat-sharing agreements in the coming week. Within the NDA, the BJP and JD(U) are likely to contest close to 100 seats each, leaving the remaining 43 for smaller allies.

In the opposition alliance, the Left and RJD are trying to persuade the Congress to scale down its demands and contest only in constituencies where it has a realistic chance of winning. In the last election, the Congress contested 70 seats but managed to win only 19. The party was blamed for the defeat of the alliance. The CPI(ML), which had the best strike rate within the opposition alliance in the last elections, has openly advised the Congress to work for the victory of the alliance rather than focussing solely on getting a large number of seats to contest.

The ruling alliance too is witnessing a tussle for larger share of seats. The three smaller parties headed by Chirag Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi are demanding a larger share than what they got last time. Paswan has announced that his party had won all the five Lok Sabha seats that his party was allotted, and therefore, it should be given more seats than last time to help the NDA return to power.