Farming in the age of climate whiplash

When heavy floods swept through Punjab and Haryana this July, 52-year-old farmer Baldev Singh watched helplessly as his paddy fields disappeared under chest-high water. “One week we were praying for rain, the next week our fields were lakes,” he said. “How do we plan for farming like this?”

Singh’s frustration captures the anxiety of millions of Indian farmers confronting what experts are calling “climate whiplash” — the violent swings between floods and droughts, sometimes within the same season, that are reshaping agriculture across the country.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that as of September 10, the 2025 southwest monsoon had delivered about 8% above-normal rainfall nationally. But averages tell only part of the story. 

While northwest India saw torrential downpours that triggered flooding in Punjab and Haryana, parts of eastern and northeastern India ran drier than usual. In the Himalayas, cloudbursts and landslides wiped out farms and villages. And in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha and Marathwada, farmers endured prolonged early-season deficits before late August rains arrived. “This is the essence of climate whiplash,” said climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll. “It’s not just about too much or too little rain. It’s about variability, unpredictability, and the inability of farmers to prepare.”

For farmers in rain-fed regions — which make up about 44% of India’s cropped area — the risks are stark. A failed monsoon can push entire households into debt, forcing distress sales of cattle or migration to cities for casual labour.

In irrigated areas, too much rain is equally destructive. “Floodwater destroys standing crops, washes away nutrients, and even disrupts power supply needed to run pumps,” said Harpreet Kaur, an agricultural economist in Ludhiana. “Farmers face losses either way.” The human toll is visible in India’s suicide statistics. The National Crime Records Bureau documented 11,290 deaths among people in the farming sector in 2022, many linked to indebtedness after crop failures. “Erratic rainfall makes agriculture riskier and deepens this crisis,” said farm activist Kavita Kuruganti.

India’s Green Revolution once turned the country from a food importer into a grain-secure nation. Today, India is the largest producer of milk and pulses, the leading exporter of spices, and the world’s top rice exporter.

But climate extremes are threatening this status. Rice, a water-intensive crop, is highly vulnerable to rainfall swings. Floods can wipe out young seedlings, while drought stunts grain development. In recent years, erratic rains forced the government to impose and later tweak rice export restrictions, rattling global markets. Wheat has also been hit by unseasonal rains, and exports remain banned since 2022. Sugar output, another key export, has swung with monsoon performance, forcing authorities to manage quotas tightly.

“If India struggles to stabilise its grain supply, it has implications beyond our borders,” said trade analyst Ajay Jakhar. “India feeds itself, but also feeds the world.”

The government has set ambitious targets to expand agricultural exports, eyeing high-value markets for rice, fruits, vegetables, and spices. India’s share in global agricultural trade has grown steadily over the past decade.

But climate volatility threatens that trajectory. In the basmati belt of Punjab and Haryana, ill-timed rains this year raised concerns about grain quality — aroma and elongation, critical for exports. Mango shipments, prized in the Gulf and Europe, face risks when erratic rains disrupt flowering or spur pest infestations. Spices like cardamom and pepper are acutely sensitive to rainfall variability, with yields swinging year to year.

“Export markets demand consistency,” said a Delhi-based rice exporter. “When volumes fall or quality dips, buyers shift to Thailand or Vietnam. We risk losing credibility.”

Experts say India’s vulnerability is compounded by weak infrastructure. Only 55.75% of cropped area was irrigated in 2022-23, leaving vast tracts dependent on rainfall. Cold storage and warehousing facilities are far below requirements. Less than 10% of produce moves through an integrated cold chain, and packhouse gaps for fruits and vegetables are estimated at 99%. Post-harvest losses amount to 4–8% for cereals and 5–15% for fruits and vegetables.

“This means even bumper harvests rot before reaching consumers,” said agricultural policy researcher Ashok Gulati. “We cannot buffer against deficit years when we waste in surplus years.”

The government has experimented with crop diversification, insurance, and infrastructure upgrades, but results remain uneven.

Diversification: The International Year of Millets in 2023 highlighted climate-resilient grains, but farmers in Punjab and Haryana remain locked into water-hungry paddy and wheat cycles due to assured procurement.

Water management: Micro-irrigation and rainwater harvesting projects are expanding, but adoption remains slow, especially among smallholders.

Forecasting: Mobile-based weather advisories are being rolled out, but extension services are too thin to ensure widespread use.

Storage: Private investment in warehouses and cold chains is growing but far short of demand.

Insurance: Schemes exist but payouts are often delayed or inadequate, undermining trust.

“There is no silver bullet,” said economist Abhijit Sen. “Resilience requires a package of measures — better infrastructure, smarter policies, and stronger institutions.”

The challenges are not just technical but political. Subsidies and procurement patterns lock states into unsustainable cycles. Punjab and Haryana’s paddy-wheat rotation persists because of assured procurement at minimum support prices. In Maharashtra, sugarcane dominates despite being drought-prone, thanks to entrenched political influence.

Governments also lean heavily on short-term relief such as loan waivers and compensation payments. “These may win elections but do little to build resilience,” said Kuruganti. “What we need are investments in irrigation, research, and farmer services that pay off over decades.”

Climate whiplash in India is not a local issue. With nearly 1.4 billion people, India’s food stability is central to global markets. Export bans, while protecting Indian consumers, ripple across Asia and Africa, where Indian rice and wheat are staples.

The stakes are rising as climate extremes grow more frequent. The floods in Punjab, the droughts in Bihar, the export curbs on rice and wheat — these are no longer isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper vulnerability.

For farmers like Baldev Singh, resilience feels abstract when fields are underwater. “We hear about climate change on TV,” he said, “but for us, it is every day. Some days we drown, some days we dry.”

India’s policymakers face a choice: continue reacting piecemeal to each crisis, or build a long-term strategy that equips farmers to cope with extremes. That means diversifying crops, fixing water management, investing in infrastructure, and aligning subsidies with sustainability.

Agriculture in the age of climate whiplash is a test of imagination and political will. If India fails, the costs will not be confined to its farmers. They will be borne by every Indian household and by nations worldwide that depend on India’s food exports.

The rains may remain unpredictable. Policy cannot afford to be.