India’s race for rare earths

When oil fuelled the engines of the last century, the nations that controlled it shaped the global order. Today, the new contest is over critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths—that underpin clean energy, advanced electronics, and defence. India’s National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), launched in January 2025, is more than a mining programme: it is a blueprint for energy independence, technological strength, and a resilient place in global supply chains.

For decades, India’s vulnerability lay in oil dependence. As the shift to a low-carbon economy gathers pace, the risk has moved to minerals essential for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and semiconductors. In 2023, the Ministry of Mines identified thirty critical minerals for India, from lithium and cobalt to less familiar elements like gallium and tellurium. These are the vitamins of the modern economy—small in volume, indispensable in function.

Control over them is now geopolitics. China processes nearly 90 per cent of the world’s rare earths. The Democratic Republic of Congo produces about three-quarters of global cobalt, while Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia dominate lithium reserves. India cannot afford such dependence. The NCMM is, in this sense, not optional but strategic survival.

India’s climate pledges sharpen this urgency. By 2030, half of the country’s power capacity is to come from non-fossil sources, on the way to net-zero emissions by 2070. The path to those targets runs through critical minerals. Solar power depends on silicon, tellurium, indium, and gallium. Installed solar capacity already tops 119 gigawatts, with 280 gigawatts targeted by 2030. Wind turbines rely on neodymium and dysprosium. India has passed 51 gigawatts of capacity, with a goal of 140 gigawatts. Electric vehicles hinge on lithium, nickel, and cobalt, with a target of 30 per cent market share by 2030. Storage systems for renewable power, whether lithium-ion or next-generation sodium-ion, also depend on these resources. Without secure supply, climate goals will remain rhetoric.

The NCMM, spanning 2024–31, has a budget of `16,300 crore, with another `18,000 crore expected from public sector undertakings and private partners. Its aims are threefold: secure domestic resources, diversify supply chains abroad, and develop technology and talent at home. Amendments to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act give the central government the power to auction twenty-four of the thirty identified minerals, ensuring a national approach to exploration and licensing.

The mission also looks beyond conventional mining. A `100 crore fund supports pilot projects to extract minerals from tailings, fly ash, and red mud—industrial waste streams now reimagined as strategic assets. Recycling is another pillar. A `1,500 crore incentive scheme will process e-waste, used batteries, and scrapped vehicles. The targets are ambitious: 270 kilotonnes of recycling capacity, 40 kilotonnes of recovered minerals, `8,000 crore in investment, and 70,000 new jobs. Recycling is not a side note but the surest path to resilience. Unlike oil, minerals can be recovered and reused. India’s e-waste mountains may yet prove as valuable as its mines.

Innovation is the mission’s second front. By 2030, the NCMM seeks 1,000 patents across the mineral value chain. The momentum is visible: in May and June 2025 alone, over sixty patents were filed and ten granted, spanning sodium-ion batteries, tungsten-polymer composites, and advanced anode materials. These breakthroughs reduce dependence on imported technology and open new commercial avenues. Supporting this drive are seven Centres of Excellence across IITs and research labs, funded through a mix of government support, industry partnerships, and venture capital. Here, India’s mineral future is being designed.

Yet success cannot be confined within national borders. Just as China secured stakes in Africa and Latin America, India too must acquire overseas assets. Public and private players will need to invest in mines abroad while forging partnerships in processing and refining. India should also use its credibility to lead calls for a “Minerals Bretton Woods”—a global framework for cooperation, transparency, and sustainability. Without such rules, resource competition risks spiralling into trade wars and resource nationalism.

The road ahead is not without hazards. Mining is environmentally destructive, and India must balance extraction with ecological stewardship. Overseas projects may be exposed to political volatility. Despite progress, domestic refining and processing capacity remains thin. Financing too is a challenge: mobilising ₹34,000 crore over seven years demands steady political and fiscal commitment. If not managed well, the NCMM could repeat the cycle of lofty ambitions and under-delivery that has dogged past industrial strategies.

But the alternative—inaction—is far worse. Critical minerals are the oil of the twenty-first century: scarce, strategic, and fiercely contested. Securing them is about more than clean energy or industrial growth; it is about sovereignty. The NCMM offers India a chance to reduce import dependence, accelerate the green transition, and place itself at the heart of future supply chains.

If implemented with the urgency and focus it deserves, the mission will be remembered as a turning point: the moment India broke free from resource dependence not once but twice—first from oil, and now from minerals. That achievement would truly secure the minerals of tomorrow.