Oil choices matter more than US tariffs

Tariffs hurt. They squeeze exporters, unsettle investors, and spark diplomatic chest-thumping. But India has seen these storms before. With its vast home market and increasingly spread-out trade links, it has cushions. Tariffs sting, but they don’t shatter. The deeper fault line runs elsewhere — through the tankers that keep India supplied with oil.

The blow came in late August. Washington imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, punishing New Delhi for refusing to cut back on Russian crude. The response was instant: talk of a trade war, predictions of retaliation, market jitters. Politicians struck familiar notes.

Energy, Not Tariffs, Anchors Sovereignty

India relies on imports for more than 85 per cent of its crude. That figure explains almost everything. Factories, transport, household budgets, even foreign policy room for manoeuvre — all rest on whether the country can secure steady and affordable oil.

This is why the real story is not the tariff but the ships docking at Jamnagar or Visakhapatnam. The US can tax goods. India cannot allow its energy arteries to clog.New Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude, despite Western anger, are not gestures of defiance. They are acts of necessity.

The Shock of 2022

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the oil market convulsed. Prices spiked, Western buyers pulled back, and India faced a choice: stick to its Gulf suppliers at punishing cost or buy Moscow’s shunned barrels at discount. It chose the latter.

That decision helped check inflation, kept petrol pumps steady, and preserved growth. In an economy where fuel costs can swing political fortunes, it was a lifeline.

The US and Europe could afford to talk about “energy purity.” India could not. Tariffs draw blood. Oil shocks topple governments.

Trade Disputes Can Be Managed; Oil Cannot

There is an asymmetry here. Trade rows pass. WTO filings are made, negotiations drag, compromises follow. Markets diversify. Tariffs can be rolled back as quickly as they appear.

Oil flows are different. Tankers can’t be rerouted at will. Refineries can’t adapt overnight. Supply chains built over decades can’t be rebuilt in months. A trade spat is bruising. A fuel shortage is paralysing.

Walking Three Roads at Once

India’s oil diplomacy today balances three poles:

• Moscow for cheap barrels and long-term projects.

• The Gulf for bulk supply and investment ties.

• Washington for capital, technology, and global clout.

This is not the hedge of a minor power. It is the agility of a large one. Blind alignment would be folly. India needs all three.

History’s Warnings

The oil shocks of the 1970s ripped through Western economies, toppling governments and rewriting alliances. More recently, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas forced a politically painful reset.

India has absorbed these lessons. A nation that cannot guarantee fuel for its factories and homes remains vulnerable, no matter how strong its military or how fast its growth.

Don’t Let Pragmatism Become Complacency

Still, reliance on Moscow and the Gulf carries risks. Sanctions could tighten. West Asian conflicts could choke supply routes. Energy has become a weapon in geopolitics.

The answer lies in broadening the base. Africa and Latin America must feature more in India’s import map. Strategic reserves need expansion. Refining and storage capacity must grow. And the slow, uneven transition to renewables must accelerate.

Fault Lines of a Multipolar World

India’s oil strategy also reveals the fractures of the current order. Washington wants sanctions enforced. Moscow seeks loyalty. The Gulf hedges between old patrons and new partners.

India’s response has been to refuse the straightjacket. It carves its own space, preserving autonomy even at the cost of friction. In that, it becomes a model for other emerging economies — survival first, alignment later.

Preparing for the Energy Future

Solar, wind and green hydrogen are not only about climate goals but also about building strategic resilience. For this, India cannot do without Western partnerships. The contrast is clear: while the country insists on autonomy in oil, it must embrace collaboration in clean energy. True sovereignty today, in fact, depends on shared interdependence tomorrow.

Tariffs Fade. Oil Endures

The tariff war will make noise. It may drag on for months, perhaps even years. But like most trade disputes, it will eventually soften, through talks, arbitration, or simple pragmatism.

What endures is the harder question: can India guarantee its energy supplies in a fractured world? A ship docking in an Indian port with crude on board matters much more than a container turned away at an American port.

Tariffs bruise. Oil shocks can break. And in that hierarchy, India’s choices on energy will always matter more than customs duties.