Power shifts beneath the earth

The world’s next power struggle is being fought beneath the surface — in the deserts of Chile, the valleys of Congo, the coasts of Australia, and the laboratories of East Asia — where the race to control critical minerals intensifies. 

These essential elements — lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and the rare earths such as neodymium and dysprosium — are the backbone of the clean-energy revolution and the digital economy. They power electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, satellites, and precision weapons. In the 20th century, oil shaped global politics; in the 21st, control over these materials will shape the architecture of energy, technology, and strategic influence.

The International Energy Agency estimates that achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050 will require a sixfold increase in the supply of key critical minerals by 2040. Electric vehicles use six times more mineral inputs than conventional petrol cars, while an offshore wind turbine needs roughly 13 times more mineral inputs than a gas-fired plant. Yet these resources are not distributed evenly. They are difficult to extract, energy-intensive to refine, and often concentrated in a handful of countries. The result is a supply chain that is as fragile as it is indispensable.

No nation has exploited this reality more effectively than China. Over three decades, Beijing has built an extraordinary grip over the world’s critical-mineral value chains. According to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China now controls around 60 per cent of global lithium refining, 65 per cent of cobalt processing, and nearly 90 per cent of rare-earth refining and magnet manufacturing. It invested early — from cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo to lithium brine operations in South America and processing hubs in Inner Mongolia — while much of the West was offshoring its heavy industry.

This dominance is not merely economic; it is strategic. When China tightened export controls on gallium and germanium in 2023, followed by restrictions on rare-earth magnets, the resulting market turmoil reminded the world that technological power can depend on supply chains as much as innovation. In this new landscape, minerals are no longer just commodities — they are instruments of statecraft.

Although belated, the Western response has been swift. The United States, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are all racing to diversify supply and reduce exposure. Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Law have earmarked tens of billions of dollars to boost domestic mining, refining, and recycling. The United States has also launched the Minerals Security Partnership with allies such as Australia, Canada, and the EU to coordinate global investments. Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act, adopted in 2024, requires at least 10 per cent of its critical minerals to be mined within the EU and 40 per cent to be refined locally by 2030, while limiting dependence on any single supplier to 65 per cent.

Japan and South Korea are signing long-term supply contracts and expanding their recycling industries. Meanwhile, Australia and Canada are positioning themselves as reliable democratic suppliers, moving beyond their traditional role as raw-material exporters toward refining and advanced manufacturing.

Amid this global scramble, India has begun to move decisively. The National Critical Minerals Mission, launched in 2024, aims to secure supplies of 30 minerals vital to clean technology and defence production — including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths — while promoting domestic exploration, refining, and recycling. Strong partnerships through the Quad and the Minerals Security Partnership are aimed at ensuring a diverse geological base, a fast-growing market for electric mobility and renewable energy.

India remains heavily import-dependent for several minerals and lacks large-scale refining capacity. But recent policy reforms — including amendments to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act — have opened the sector to private and foreign investment. New discoveries by the Geological Survey of India in Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha, and Rajasthan are encouraging signs. Through the Khanij Bidesh India Ltd (KABIL), India is also acquiring stakes in overseas projects in Argentina, Australia, and Africa. Combined with domestic efforts in recycling and cleaner extraction technologies, these steps mark the beginning of a long-term strategic shift. If India can align exploration, technology, and partnerships effectively, it could evolve from a resource importer to a credible global participant — reinforcing both its energy security and industrial competitiveness.

Globally, technological innovation is also beginning to reshape the sector. New hydrometallurgical methods and bioleaching techniques are reducing emissions and improving recovery rates. The IEA estimates that by 2040, up to 40 per cent of global demand for battery metals could be met through recycling, provided adequate infrastructure and incentives are created. Today, less than 5 per cent of lithium-ion batteries are recycled, but countries such as Japan and South Korea are investing heavily in large-scale “urban mining” facilities.

Yet the green transition carries its own environmental paradox. Producing one tonne of refined lithium carbonate can emit between 15 and 20 tonnes of carbon dioxide, according to data compiled by MIT’s Climate Portal and industry sources. In South America’s “Lithium Triangle”, where brine extraction dominates, production can consume hundreds of tonnes of water per tonne of lithium — depleting aquifers and threatening fragile ecosystems. Without cleaner methods and responsible governance, the pursuit of sustainability risks becoming self-defeating.

That is why the next phase of competition will hinge not only on speed and access but also on sustainability and transparency. Countries that lead in low-emission, water-efficient, and ethically sourced mining will enjoy both reputational and commercial advantages.

Critical minerals are more than the raw ingredients of modern industry — they are the arteries through which the energy and technology of the 21st century will flow. The challenge before the world is not whether competition will exist, but whether it can be channelled toward shared security and responsible progress. India’s entry into this field, alongside the efforts of other democratic partners, can help diversify supply, balance global dependencies, and strengthen collective resilience.

Beneath the earth lies the future. How nations mine, refine, and share these resources will determine not just who prospers, but how sustainably the world powers its next industrial revolution.